Gross mortgage lending totalled an estimated £12 billion in November, a 10% drop from £13.3 billion in October and down 14% from £13.9 billion in November of last year, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
A modest seasonal decline between October and November is typical, although the 10% fall is a little larger than normal. The underlying story, though, is one of market conditions holding steady and the CML does not expect this position to change much in the coming months.
In the CML monthly market commentary published today, CML economist Paul Samter says:
“There is little reason to expect much underlying change in the coming months. There could be a modest decline in underlying house buying activity in early 2010 due to the stamp duty holiday ending, with activity “bunching” over the last few months of 2009. But seasonal factors are likely to be the dominant driver over the next few months.
“There has been a modest increase in the availability of mortgage credit recently, including some tentative signs of a few higher LTV products emerging. But there is no sign of a swift recovery in lending volumes, especially with remortgaging set to remain at subdued levels while low interest rates persist.”
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